energy descent

we have been mentioning the term peak oil. this concept is directly tied to another concept by the name of energy descent. this is what permaculture people call the per capita decline in available energy.

by far most of societies' energy usage comes from non-renewable hydrocarbons. energy descent is the point at which we will have less and less energy for our use; because of the twin forces of resource depletion and increasing population. this is a reality we must all face. the question is how rapid will this descent be?

my answer is that i don't know. having read predictions of both rapid catastrophic collapse and gradual decline, i simply don't know the future.

another question is how will our region of california deal with this? this is another one of those too big to answer accurately questions. but i will attempt a brief outline:

southern california- this place will be devastated, whether slow or fast. the ecological carrying capacity of this region has been so overshot for so long that we see no hope at all. we suggest get while the gettins good. the sprawling suburbs are oil and water dependent to such an extreme degree that there is no hope of a "sustainable" southern california for a long time. the large military-industry presence will also make this a not-so-happy place in the event of further resource wars. the political culture is a huge impediment to change in addition to the ecological overshoot.

central california- the fertile central valley will have to reinvent itself. large land holdings and industrial agriculture have depleted much soil, but there is hope. if land can be redistributed to small land holdings and the latin population acquires a fair political voice then we may see a transition to more sustainable farming practices. there are already huge water projects which can be utilized if the current wasteful irrigation practices are changed. the massive sprawl in places like fresno, sacramento and stockton is obviously going to be transfered back into farm land. this place has potential if only the landed farmers would allow for this change without tremendous upheaval.

northern california- the bay area is far too populated. energy descent will hit here hard. but the prospects for northern california as a whole are better here than the rest of the state. because of geography (mostly mountains) and culture. the majority of people are ignorant of energy descent, but there is a large and growing minority who are aware. this is a critical difference with the rest of the state, which will probably be made even more clear with time. there are many organic farms, alternative communities and permaculture type peoples who will make a difference when the going gets rough. these people can teach others hopefully enough of us to preserve our culture. the political culture just might be able to pull together and offer some real leadership. if they can identify the real problems.