Future California

What is the future of California? I ask various questions and generate discussion around what our future is. Particularly in light of Peak Oil and the resulting economic difficulties.

Sunday, July 02, 2006

End of the Liberal Age

The connection between harnessing surplus energy and the level of social complexity is obvious. In fact White's Law states that as per capita energy availability increases so then does social complexity. What is not so obvious is the connection between liberalism and surplus energy. Here surplus energy is any additional energy a society can harness beyond mere subsistence. And liberalism refers to the set of ideas that has shaped the modern world. These ideas include the nation state, universal legal rights, human rights, universal suffrage, women's rights and feminism, multiculturalism, and many other ideas which are the true foundation of the modern age.

In fact most of these ideas have been established to such a degree that they are taken for granted. For example most women probably don't take the time to reflect upon the historical process which resulted in the right to own property, much less vote. I suppose this is simply the post-modern age when we don't have to think about those pesky things. At least this seems to be the prevailing attitude.

It is my assertion that this liberal foundation is very fragile indeed and will likely crumble as this century wears on. I base this on the reality of energy descent. There will be less energy per capita from here on out. It will become increasingly clear how prosperity is the essential basis of the "liberal project." Prosperity essentially requires energy. Energy supplies diminish so does prosperity.

No longer will we be able to have a handy-cap accessible society. For a moment reflect upon the life of a handy-cap person in a wheel chair. Our society is so wealthy that we are able to provide for many of these people, and provide for them very well indeed. An individual who say loses the ability to walk can apply for monetary support from the government. They can receive enough money to live alone, a nice electric wheelchair to get around and a vehicle with a handy little wheelchair elevator. Not only this but their local municipality has legislated wheelchair access for most publicly accessible establishments so they can go to their favorite restaurant. This is indeed a good thing, and a compassionate thing. Alas also a temporary thing. The point here is to illustrate how money and resource intensive it is to to support even one handy-cap person. As energy becomes more expensive our already top-heavy government and corporate institutions will come under increasing pressure. The current energy allocation system will become defunct.

The above handicap example stands in contrast to another situation; the increasingly desperate plight of able-bodied youth. So many young folks are over-educated and underemployed. Not only that they are usually saddled with a large amount of debt. There is growing discontent and resentment. The situation is not at the breaking point just yet, but if these same trends continue then we can expect some serious disaffected redress.

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