Long Emergency Review

Having just finished James Howard Kunstler’s Long Emergency, I must admit I am depressed. Despite the fact that he presents information that is not new to me, he does it in a way that is confident and matter-of-fact. Leaving any shred of optimism I was harboring completely gone. We are in for very difficult times ahead.

The basic premise of the book is that we are witnessing the end of the cheap oil era, and with it the end of industrial civilisation. The ramifications are enormous and Kunstler does not spare us any consolation. I think he presents such a dire picture in order to get the point across to a comatose public through dramatic phraseology. The criticisms of what he calls the drive-thru utopia are relentless. And he caps the book with a sobering final chapter, explaining what it may be like living through this “emergency.” I am now contemplating heading for the hills with a gun.

I must admit I am a fan of Kunstler’s. I have read his book City in Mind, and I found it very insightful. Having not read any of his fiction, however I will still hazard my opinion that he is a damn good writer. In Long Emergency he manages to treat a depressing and dismall subject and make it funny, well sometimes. One gets used to his pet phrases and even comes to like them. However no amount of literary style can mask the basic message of this work. Which can be summed up with the phrase; we are fucked.

Kunstler displays an incredible breadth of understanding and pulls from all sorts of areas. First and foremost is the global energy situation. Which he summarizes very well. Secondly he treats the phenomon of cultural malaise as it relates to the context of post-industrial capitalism in America. His chapter on economics is great, very succinct and rife with riotous phrases. My opinion is that he sees thing very clearly and has a gift for articulating it.

Some might criticise him as pessimistic or alarmist. Well the pessimism might be somewhat accurate. At least in relation to his opinion of the state of American culture today. He is not arrogant or contemptuous, rather he has seen with his own eyes the state of things and come up with some insightful observations. He has travelled throughout this country and Europe giving talks and presentations. This man knows what he is talking about through first hand knowledge of the situation. From reading his website one discovers that he has a tragic view of life. Tragic in the sense of drama tragedy. This is not necessarily pessimistic, rather different in that this view recognises loss as tragic. Loss being inevitable in life so then is tragedy. As for the label alarmist, well this also is true up to a certain point. I can see that Kunstler genuinely cares about his fellow Americans and he accurately sees that the time is already past to do something to stop the inevitable. Still I think he hopes to sound an alarm for people who can hear it. So they may salvage some of what is valuable in our civilisation. Kunstler still would like to see the Enlightenment project continue, although he admits the chances are slim.

I think this book is very refreshing, and could not have come at a better time. Read this book! He dispenses with any unfounded optimism of the future and calls it like he sees it. Surely he delights in getting a reaction from his readers and listeners, but I cannot fault him for his style any more than I can fault him for his content. All in all this is the most important book to come out this decade.

The Road of Revolution

I often ask myself: "is our condition terminal?"

Will it be enough to reform our societal institutions, or are we so far gone that an entire paradigm change is needed?

Never have i conclusively convinced myself of one position or another. I tend to think that the best government is no government and that people should take responsibility for their own actions and welfare. So in this sense i am an anarchist or at the very least a libertarian. This however is an ideal and i fully recognize that it is certainly not possible these days, if in fact it ever was. The chaos would be tremendous, not to mention tossing our recent traditions of helping the "underprivileged." So then my realistic position falls somewhere in between the real and the ideal. I have compromised my ideals you might say, because of my observations of what is actually going on. This leaves me essentially unaffiliated. It seems the right and the left are hopelessly mired in their own rhetoric, bogged down by the past, and essentially beholden to those "special interests."

I agree with Gore Vidal who thinks the Republic is in terrible danger if not already dead. I do not see any major media addressing real issues such as peak oil (although this is changing) or defending basic constitutional rights. So my internal realist says the only way we will change is if we are forced to. Here is where the question of revolution comes in. We are sleep walking into the future. (thanks Kunstler) We are a massive giant moving forward mostly through momentum. What will it take to stop this?

Localisation and regionalisation is what will result after we stop. But what will it take to actually stop? Or at least slow down...

I am not optimistic about the level of real civic participation in this country. Being an active citizen is the bedrock of reform. This is not happening. Yes there are plenty of activists, and concerned citizen, but they are not really making any difference in governmental policy. They haven't been making a difference for fifty years. Our culture is so good at so many things but citizenship is not one on them. The corporations have the ear of the elected officials. Until there is a "civic revival" then effective reform will not happen. The interests of capital will dominate policy.

Does this leave us with revolution?

Maybe, but not necessarily. Revolution implies there is an active attempt to overthrow the government. I am not sure we have it in us. Rather it could look more like dissolution. Similar to the former Soviet Union, breakdown into smaller parts. This would be better i think, mostly because it avoids bloodshed. It is only a matter of time anyway. The cultural differences of the four or five main regions of our country are growing by the day. Wouldn't it be nice let the South just drift off into their own little world, detatched from ours?

The Road of Reform

California is a "place apart." The polarization between us and them is increasing. The actions of the federal government for some time now has not reflected the will of California voters. And many people are asking why. Why are we so wealthy and powerful in so many ways but our ability to wield national and international power is very limited? The electoral process is a specific area which limits the power of this state. Also the structure of the Senate is another disproportional institution. The generally liberal and progressive politics of the Golden State are structurally prevented from achieving an effective national voice. To be sure the "soft power" of California is very substantial our most important export is what can be called culture in the form of media, movies, television, academics, and art.

The strategic question for California is how to implement a gradual and permanent power restructuring of the United States. To reflect a more equitable distribution of power. This is an enormous task there are many variable and perspectives to take into consideration. including the following issues:

- Would the population support this?
- How to leverage the current political camps?
- Taking advantage of the coming economic/energy crisis?
- Dealing with the inteference of the US intelligence community.
- How to handle corporate influence in power politics?
- Identifying key issues and trends related to them.
- The role of foreign governments and diplomacy in our position.
- identifying the linkages and depencies of the state and federal levels
- three pillars of debate: primary energy sources, security, and interdependence
and how the state and regions can take power in these areas.
- economy and currency (the role of the dollar)

This is a long-term project, rather a series of projects. It involves forming an office to collect and analyze the intelligence. Also forming alliances in key elite circles. Identifying certain parties and using their ideological causes and reframing them in terms of a state vs. federal paradigm. Also an alliance and meta-organization of NGO's are crucial to leverage the power of the elites. Eventually California will be in a position to choose to between complicity and cooperation in the drift towards a fascist America or taking a moral stand and protecting her citizens and their rights. This situation will help catalyze people into making a decision, and any work in promoting California ahead of time will pay off at this point when the rhetoric heats up and people must choose sides. If California is able to make a clear stand against the federal government and back it up with real actions like using her state forces to protect her citizens from federal agents. Protecting her citizens from draconian federal laws etc...

Long term issues need to be addressed, the most pressing are the demographic, and energy issues and how they relate to economy. Our dependence on the car and the suburb is going to become very untenable in an energy-defficient future. Particularly in Southern California which is poised on the brink of chaos.

A plan of regionalisation and visionary solutions solutions can work. A two-pronged effort of state support and regional initiative can and must be promoted. An energy tax must be implemented on gasoline in order to fund the transition. A massive educational project must be undertaken to support this tax and tie it to the future well-being of our state. The alternatives are grim, the results will be long-term impoverishment of future generations.

But the message must be both hopeful and realistic. To be sure this will require massive state involvement on the infrastructure level if long-term results are to be achieved. This all underlies the importance of weaning California from the rest of the country if we are to achieve more independence. But we don't intend to merely respond to the changing needs of an ever changing popular opinion. This is where the inspiration of visionary leadership comes in.