energy descent

we have been mentioning the term peak oil. this concept is directly tied to another concept by the name of energy descent. this is what permaculture people call the per capita decline in available energy.

by far most of societies' energy usage comes from non-renewable hydrocarbons. energy descent is the point at which we will have less and less energy for our use; because of the twin forces of resource depletion and increasing population. this is a reality we must all face. the question is how rapid will this descent be?

my answer is that i don't know. having read predictions of both rapid catastrophic collapse and gradual decline, i simply don't know the future.

another question is how will our region of california deal with this? this is another one of those too big to answer accurately questions. but i will attempt a brief outline:

southern california- this place will be devastated, whether slow or fast. the ecological carrying capacity of this region has been so overshot for so long that we see no hope at all. we suggest get while the gettins good. the sprawling suburbs are oil and water dependent to such an extreme degree that there is no hope of a "sustainable" southern california for a long time. the large military-industry presence will also make this a not-so-happy place in the event of further resource wars. the political culture is a huge impediment to change in addition to the ecological overshoot.

central california- the fertile central valley will have to reinvent itself. large land holdings and industrial agriculture have depleted much soil, but there is hope. if land can be redistributed to small land holdings and the latin population acquires a fair political voice then we may see a transition to more sustainable farming practices. there are already huge water projects which can be utilized if the current wasteful irrigation practices are changed. the massive sprawl in places like fresno, sacramento and stockton is obviously going to be transfered back into farm land. this place has potential if only the landed farmers would allow for this change without tremendous upheaval.

northern california- the bay area is far too populated. energy descent will hit here hard. but the prospects for northern california as a whole are better here than the rest of the state. because of geography (mostly mountains) and culture. the majority of people are ignorant of energy descent, but there is a large and growing minority who are aware. this is a critical difference with the rest of the state, which will probably be made even more clear with time. there are many organic farms, alternative communities and permaculture type peoples who will make a difference when the going gets rough. these people can teach others hopefully enough of us to preserve our culture. the political culture just might be able to pull together and offer some real leadership. if they can identify the real problems.

peak oil is upon us

have you heard the term peak oil?

within the last few days representative Bartlett from Maryland gave an hour long presentation about peak oil to the House. After reading the full transcript I must say it is a very good introduction to the concept.


I have been learning about and tracking peak oil for well over a year now.

here is the basic idea: peak oil is the point at which half of total world reserves are used up. after this point oil becomes more expensive because the second half of these reserves are more costly and difficult to pump. that's it. what's the big deal?

because so much in our so-called advanced society depends on cheap oil there are manifold consequences. rise of gas prices, increasing prices of goods that are shipped long distances (almost everything), difficulting if not impossibility in growing the economy without cheap oil, political/military posturing for remaining energy resources, yayaya...

i will leave this up to others to go into detail, but the point is we are truly on the cusp of a new era. we must change ourselves; our habits, assumptions, and lifestyles to accomodate this new reality. this is not business as usual.

this transition need not be very painful, yes we will have to sacrifice, but this is exactly the kind of thing which could pull communities together.

then what should we do?

use less energy, conserve resources, retrofit your house, learn permaculture principles, become a community participant

reform vs. revolution

the question of reform vs. revolution is central in political thought. deeper than political thought, an individual's worldview can be categorized in similar terms. a worldview can by degrees be ideologicaly radical or practically incremental. for example if an individual seeks to radically liberate themselves from the physical world they may commit suicide, or take enough psychotropic drugs to dissociate themselves from bodily confines. this is the internal equivalent of revolution. on the other hand one may embark on a long course of meditation. slowly over time learning how to navigate unseen realms, as an aspect of meditative experience. this is the internal equivalent of reform.

reform is a long hard road to travel, but the effects are also long term.

revolution is a rapid transformation of an existing order, likely to result in a short-term situation.

our culture here on the West Coast has already been paving the road of reform. it is often remarked that we are in a bubble, sealed off from mainstream America, it is that different.

i expect the differences to increase with time.

Asia is our friend

We see growing fear of China in our media and government circles. Not only is China feared but all of Asia really. It is generally recognized that our economic fate is in their hands. At least the fate of the dollar is in the hands of Asian central banks, particullarly Japan, China, Taiwan, Korea, and India. If these folks sell their dollars, which they already have begun doing, say goodbye to the dollar's value. These countries are recognising or already have identified the next phase of the global economic game. This phase is commodity acquisition, real goods. Thus we see China buying up most of the world's steel, cement, copper and other limited resources. They definitely know the name of the game.

I say sell those dollars! The sooner the better.

Why?

Because this will force us, here in America to wake up. Examine what we are doing, not only to the world but to ourselves. We can then make decisions that are more human centric. A massive recession is an opportunity to reevaluate our alienating economic system and ask ourselves what is really important. I think after much hardship that this type of situation will actually bring people together and we may have the opportunity to participate in real community. Imagine that! Human interelationships with meaning. Depending on each other for things.

So towards this end I say Asia is our friend. We do not fear a dollar selloff. In fact we welcome it. Also we have no desire to antagonise or patronise Asia. We think you are interesting Asia, and would like to be your friend into the future. California is not Washington. We want to cooperate in a spirit of mutual respect and benefit.

real decline of the west

Spengler's Decline of the West is mostly concerned with the cultural aspects of the "West." Although interesting and important are his observations we would like to point out the decline in terms of resource base. The physical decline of the West is measureable in our diminishing resource base. Too many people for too few resources. Today fossil fuels are propping this situation up by providing massive energy, fertilizer, and material inputs into the economic system. As we approach the peak of oil extraction the effects of decline will become more pronounced. We do not have in mind sudden catastophe, rather a steady decline in wealth, space, and general living standards. Competition will greatly increase for what is remaining.

What does this have to do specifically with California? Is not this a global phenomenon?

Yes, indeed it is global, but we must point out the inevitable regionalisation that will occur. California (at least the north) has much potential to transform into something better. With many resources and people with usefull skills I believe we can weather this transformation better than most other places. That is if we can adopt our cultural attitudes to do so. Big if.

all is calm in the west

a brief survey of the news reveals nothing erupting on the surface, but much brewing underneath. countries align themselves for a final resource grab. debt levels continue to rise astronomically. asian banks still buy dollars but are getting tired of it. traffic has been relatively light. i noticed an odd anouncement on the lighted bulletin board near the Bay Bridge flashing "abducted child honda accorded smashed right window" struck me as rather Orwellian and perhaps Bradburian. Are we to track this vehicle down ourselves. maybe call 911 if we see it? citizen participation, ain't it sweetly rewarding?

i suspect around the equinox things will boil over. the relatively calm surface will see disturbances.

i wonder how the governor and Newsom would get along? when trying to coordinate emergency preparedness would they see eye to eye? how about the governor, Newsom and Oakland mayor Brown? this sounds comical, like a sketch.

the increasing indicators of a coming draft are almost comical. i would love to see how soft Americans deal with attempts to force them into the corrupt military. particularly the smarter ones who have the skills the military lacks, like languages and computer programming. seems ironic that the high-tech military having invested so many billions in its ultra-sophisticated killing capabilities now can't find enough skilled hands to deal with them.

what's wrong with them? don't they see we need the oil...they must be wondereing. or maybe thinking that its time to quite the polemics and just start shootin' the Arabs. away with the false rhetoric of Democracy and Human Rights, we are empire, and only the strong survive. we must suck it up, and just stomach the killing.

this might actually go over in the South and perhaps the Midwest, but here in the Bay Area? makes one laugh, about time for some real autonomy

west in the mind

here at the Nomad Cafe, everybody has laptops. most with headphones. the virtual west, my own California. techtropolis of the mind. gorgeous people float in and out, all of them interesting in that kind of punky alternative North Oakland way.

it strikes me that we are adrift. perhaps it is i that is so. but still if i am adrift then perhaps i can recognize this in others? adrift in our own worlds. what social customs do we share, us all here at the Nomad? drinking coffee and punching keys on the computer is not really what i would call culture. this is the west, the culmination of human liberation. we can choose to be virtual friends and physical strangers. perhaps we are simply sharing in the expression of self. not the big capital S, Self; no we are expressing our little selves. maybe to the chagrin of the big Self? who knows.

adrift from a larger purpose. there is no central point to our lives, here on the edge of America. some may have personal ambitions and dreams, but this is not something that we all really participate in. some social groups like churches and temples are around but these are throwbacks. anybody who is "liberated" doesn't do them.

rather would we look good, express our individuality, "activate" our potential; or repress...

repression, yes that nasty psychological concept used to smear those uptight traditions still clinging around.

let's see...would i rather go to church, listen to a sermon, inspire my soul beyond this world, and mingle with other goodie churchgoers...or would i prefer to dance to booming electro-beats, shaking my ass amidst other gyrating bodies. tatoos, piercings and general sexiness pervading the atmosphere?