What is really going on?

When we ask ourselves this question several avenues of inquiry appear before us. Both of the these "paths" of understanding have their own logic and worldview supporting them. As we see it how we view history and the manner in which events unfold informs our understanding of how events are currently unfolding.

We propose two axis of historical understanding.

1) the two poles of this axis are the CONSPIRACY vs. the ACCIDENTAL/NATURAL theories of history:
Here we observe the conspiracy theory of history claims that history is influenced by groups of individuals acting toward a particular end. The accidental/natural theory of history holds that individuals and natural occurences are dominant in the shaping of history. The former is a fringe perspective while the latter is the dominant perspective. It seems likely that the truth lies somewhere in between these two perspective. While certainly individuals such as Napoleon and Hitler are crucial influences on the course of events, it seems no less plausible to say that elite groups have always been conspiring to shape history according to their perspective, witness: the Vatican, the English House of Lords, The executive board of General Motors.

2) this axis is represented by the FACTUAL vs. the MYTHOLOGICAL versions of history:
Here we make note of the difference between how events have actually transpired and how they are remembered and recorded. Revisionist history is an entire field of enquiry devoted to studying this topic. Because us humans are subjective creatures will always tend to relate events according to our own perspective and limitation. This is easily seen to be the case when the same events is described differently by two or more people. To be sure certain things cannot be denied, such as losing a battle or acknowledging and earthquake, however the explanation of why these things came to be is sure to reflect the cultural and individual bias.

These two axis taken together can be represented as a cross of historical understanding. One pole is bisecting the other at a particular point depending on the historical example in question.

The question then remains: What is really going on?

When applying this query let us apply the historical cross of understanding and navigate a location based on the cross-interface of the coordinates.

Time into Space

This post will necessarily be abstract, hopefully insightful as well.

Our main contention is that with energy descent "time" will slow down and "space" increase.

Here we are using time and space as two aspect of one phenomenon. Much like the theory of relativity explains "space/time". They work upon one another so that if one increases the other decreases. We will simply assume this is the case without further explanation.

In the human realm on this earth we use energy to move through space. Whether we are walking, riding a horse, or driving a car energy is used; calories are burned. The fewer calories we have at our disposal the more limited we are in travelling through space, that is spatially. Thus our access to energy is directly proportional to our ability to move through space, and by extension our very perception of space itself.

The exploitation of hydrocarbons has completely altered our perception of space. We can hop onto an airplane and within hours travel thousands of miles. For example by plane from San Francisco to London takes about twelve hours and requires six barrels (42 gallons each) of oil. In terms of energy expended these 250 gallons of oil are the caloric equivalent of 500,000 days of hard labor for one man (using 10,000 calories per day). Assuming a person could walk from San Francisco to London (straight across the Atlantic) if he walked this distance of say 6,000 miles at 10 miles per day. Then it would take him 600 days. For ease lets say he burns 10,000 calories per day walking.

There you have it! With oil we have turned a 600 day walking experience into a twelve hour flight. This is how space has been turned into time. However this situation has temporal limitations because hydrocarbons are limited resource. Enter peak oil and the phenomenon of energy descent. As we already know peak oil is the point at which half of the oil has been extracted from the planet. The term energy descent describes the second half of this period. "Descent" is used because the curve of the graph of per capita energy availibility is now in decline. We have been ascending this curve for well over 100 years and now we are at the top. There is now where to go but down.

This energy curve is directly linked to our perceptions and experience of time and space as we have already explained. The ascending period is one in which space is turned into time. This is because we could convert energy into speedy travel and reduce the amount of time it takes to move from one place to another. The descending period will see a correction in which time will be converted back into space. What will this look like? Much like the past...

The world will become a big place once again. Cheap airplane travel, and cheap gasoline are gone for good. It will take more money to get to far away places. More money or more time. The currrent situation will have to correct itself. First we will probably try to use uranium and radioactivity to create electricity. As the considerable drawbacks become apparant, then coal will become king once again. Railroads will revive, because they are quite efficient. Eventually the horse will once again take it perennial place as the most effective and sustainable mode of transport, besides walking.

Energy Descent & Northern California Identity

As the reality of peak oil sets in popular mind, we would like to take the opportunity to point a few things out to the citizens of Northern California.

The first observation is that we are a special place in America, our towns are not completely overrun with suburban development and we have a dynamic and diversified economic basis. We have a region that is worth caring about. Also we are rich in crucial natural resources such as fresh water, arable soil, and forests. Much of Northern California is still wilderness. We think our future prospects are decent compared to much of the country.

We observe also that the culture of Northern California already is seeded with people who are aware of the predicament we are in. And they are doing something about it. We are the leading region in the country for sustainable agriculture,
permaculture, alternative energy systems, etc...the list goes on. The seed of the next paradigm has been sowed.

Despite this, or perhaps because of it, the ongoing culture wars in this country are also happening here. We are not immune to the divisive currents that are sweeping the world. In a severe crisis the Bay Area is subject to the phenomenon of Balkanization. Which may see the various ethnic communities pitted against each other in a struggle to survive. But it does not have to happen like that. We must forge a regional identity based on the land and our shared stewardship and responsibility for it.

We would categorize the main divisions as the "ins" and the "outs." This is with respect to power; economic, political and cultural. Of course power is not the only division that is important, in order to keep focused we will consider it as the most important factor when considering the chronic tensions the era of energy descent will create. You as an individual are either in or out. This may not be so clear now, because we have only begun awakening to the difficulties ahead. Anyhow without further ado, how does this relate to the future of Northern California?

If we do not soon establish a solid and distinct regional identity, that is separate from the rest of the state and the country, then we will be manipulated and taken advantage of. We would like to see our region pull together and protect our mutual interest. Because when the going gets rough we will have powerful groups looking at our relative abundance with hunger in their eyes. Like a pack of wolves they will descend, taking our resources and wealth. That is if we are divided. Unified, with an understanding of the value of our region, we can protect this area.

One might ask, why such a negative perspective? Shouldn't we pull together as a country, and not hoard our regional wealth but share it like good neighbors? This is exactly what we should do, but on our terms. It is our opinion that the federal and state governments are no longer working for the people's interest, but for the corporate elite. It is these people that worry us, they have no sense of community well being. What drives them is profit, they have already been raping our land for a long time, and when the squeeze is on do you really thing they will suddenly become ethical and generous?

It is already past time to take back what is ours. As caretakers of the most beautiful land on earth we implore you to save it. Act with conscience, and stick together. This is our land.