Great Depletion Rate Debate

Last week ASPO-USA (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) held a conference in Denver, resulting in the acknowledgment of some general trends:

-we are at or very near the “Peak”

-decline rates are greater then previously anticipated

-it is too late for mitigation efforts to change the short term prospect

We have discussed the peaking of global oil production in previous posts. This entry is focused on the rate of depletion of existing oil wells. Basically the greater the rate of depletion, the less time we have to implement alternatives. The actual “peak” is more like a plateau, which could extend for a few years. However the longer we extend this oil production plateau the quicker the fields will decline after the plateau. It is a paradox, brought on by the prevailing economic paradigm. With high oil prices producers will pump as much oil as possible, they do not have an incentive to curtail production because there is no longer any spare capacity, anywhere.

Here are three models of depletion rates:

- 2% (26% loss of production by 2020)
- 5% (54% loss of production by 2020)
- 8% (70% loss of production by 2020)

Certain speakers indicated that 8% could be a realistic figure. This would mean a 70% drop in fifteen years! Of course some production will come online to offset these numbers, but not that much. The production coming online will be completely swallowed up by the continuing increase in global demand. If massive mitigation efforts begin today we would expect them to take at least ten years in order to be implemented and effective. We think fifteen years is a more realistic assessment which is why the date of 2020.

Obviously long before this date we will see some major changes. We specifically face a liquid fuels shortage (not to mention the natural gas crisis) this means transportation, heating, and electricity supply. If the depletion rate is closer to 2% then we probably have time for an orderly transition, however if it is near 8% then we face an impending crisis of unimaginable proportions. This crisis could be so severe that we will not make it through to the transition to an electricity based society. If social unrest and massive displacement occur then we will be hard pressed just to keep the social order in place.

At this point other factors will influence the scenario such as our public and personal debt, our childish culture of entitlement, loss of our manufacturing base, and the massive governmental corruption. There are so many variables that a clear picture is difficult if not impossible. But we are going to be forced to give up our cherished car culture. And we probably won’t do this without more fighting.