Reality

thoughts influence reality.

they do not "create" reality as some might have, but they certainly do influence it.

what, may i ask, are your thoughts on the future?

such a broad question, yet very relevant considering that thoughts influence reality. i would dare say that usually one's emotional state will color what type of thoughts are expressed.

for example, being in love is wonderful. certainly this state affects one's perspective on the future. the future is more hopeful and full of potential, when in love. of course not always, nor strictly deterministically, but generally this holds.

another example: an expecting mother cannot help but envision a decent future. for then what are the alternatives?

perhaps a more objective viewpoint could be had from an individual who has no such ties? yet even this is probably not true. a person without many binding relationships and kith/kin networks is more likely to have a correspondingly detached view of the future.

it is foolish to deny the real limits nature has imposed on us. it is equally foolish to maintain a fataly deterministic worldview. because you are a part of this future. every individual affects the unfolding of events.

this collective force is called culture. and it is this very thing which must change, or succumb to real limitations and die.

it is claimed by ecologists that we have far exceeded our planetary carrying capacity. we have done this by harnessing the ghost carrying capacity of fossil fuels, which has given us the so-called green revolution. however determining "carrying capacity" is a very tricky affair. so many variable must be taken into account that i cannot imagine the data does not have a few orders of magnitude of potential error.

this question of capacity is really a question of culture. for example, if we continue to eat massive amounts of beef then our planetary human carrying capacity is more limited than it would be otherwise. other factors to consider is the relative productivity per acre of large agribusiness farms compared to smaller family farms. other cultural factors come to bear as well. for example, what we choose to do with our time. a culture which is vigorous and active burns more calories than a leisure loving culture.

hopefully these few comments suffice to show that applying this ecological concept of "carrying capacity" is helpful but not determinitive. as humans we have a creative capacity which can be nurtured and engaged with culture. the big question is can we change the current culture?

the answer to this is unknown. certainly sections of culture can change, subcultures emerge as reactions to the larger culture. but the scale of cultural change that is needed seems massive. much larger than what has changed so far.

we shall see.

Whither San Francisco?

I look around and I see such extremes.

Haight St., San Francisco, fall 2006.

People of all stripes, colors and creeds. Beautiful, ugly, interesting. Street people, kids, families and vibrant youth. All coexisting peacefuly. Incredible diversity, I often wonder what keeps it all together. The answer is abundance. Everybody is at least eating enough, and some people are eating too much. The concrete seems softer when you are have enough to eat.

Then I put my future visions goggles on. Everything changes, less abundance is immediately apparent. The age of cheap energy is behind us and it looks like the age of tolerance went with it. All of these differences which had seemed so interesting are now very sinister. People don't seem to behave themselves when they are hungry. Who is carrying a gun or a knife?

Is San Francisco so special? Will it be able come together when the hard times hit? The tremendous diversity, and utter vulnerability, certainly present obstacles. I hope peaceful coexistence can happen. But before then, things will have to change.

Powerdown California

California must choose to consciously powerdown. The sooner we deal with energy descent, the better our future.

We create 81% of our own electricity, 42% of our own petroleum, and 16% of our own natural gas. These numbers are not insurmountable obstacles.

Massive efficiency measures, research and implementation of alternative sources is imperative.

We are facing the twin dangers of unreliable energy imports and an inept federal apparatus. A statewide powerdown plan including Oregon and Washington is desperately needed. Together we have the ability to create a sustainable "steady-state" economy, but the culture must change first. We must choose to do this, or circumstances will compel it.

If plans are implemented sooner we may even be able to integrate Southern California.

What would a plan entail?
A combination of decentralized power generation incentives, large scale innovative public transport solutions, crash courses on efficiency and environmental awareness. And most importantly a phased process of vehicle use reduction. This is of course asking alot. Yet a look at our alternatives reveals a horrible fate. We will hang ourselves from the rope of our own creation.

cascadian/ecotopian diaspora

the region from big sur to vancouver is ecotopia. also called cascadia by some.

there are four major metropolitan areas in our region:

San Francisco Bay Area
Portland
Washington/Tacoma
Vancouver

our cities like all modern metropolises will be squeezed by peak oil. eventually, rapidly or gradually, these urban centers will shrink. the hinterlands will bear the brunt of this massive relocation. this will not be pretty.

do we expect the small towns to open their arms to this stream of refugees? will race become a dividing line?

i know that Portland and Washington are overwhelmingly white; here in the Bay Area we have significant diversity. it is not hard to imagine Marin police departments blockading the Richmond bridge and probably the Golden Gate as well. What will become of Oakland? Berkeley?

Fortunately the entire population of ecotopia is relatively small compared to the land area. I believe that the hinterland could successfully absorb and feed the population if the process was well managed. So let us not be caught off-guard. Dialogue is needed.

We need to determine the sustainable carrying capacity of our region. So that we may be able to make compassionate but realistic decisions. For example, Los Angeles to our south is a disaster waiting to happen. The population of this relatively small area is equal to the entire region of ecotopia. How many Southern California refugees can we handle before being overwhelmed? The harsh reality is this: we have real limits on our ability to feed, shelter, and care for people. We need to determine what those limits are...

systemic volatility

who has not noticed a general increase in volatility? in the past five, ten years...

this seems to be occuring on multiple levels. natural phenomenon are becoming increasingly uncertain and extreme. our culture is experienced unprecedented fragmentation and polarisation. the economic system is embodying baffling contradictions. these aspects are all interelated one with another.

with any increase in volatility comes a decrease in predictability. we are reaching a major inflection point. as time reverts back into space so then the temporal volatility will be "fixed." like any precipitate in a solution, the resultant of multiple factors will be drawn out of the mix. if one agitates the solution then this process will speed up and become more uncertain.

it seems rather futile for humans to run around and respond to all these events. from famine, to disasters, to economic interventions. the net result seems to only increase the entropy of the system. we are caught in a giant paradox.

it remains to be seen what exactly is being precipitated out of this volatile solution. it seems this will be the seeds of the next cycle.

posse comitatus

this is the term in so-called common law which a local sherif (authority) can conscript local men into service.

i wonder what will become of this practice, rather what has become of it? i do not know if it has been used in california in this century, but i suspect it was used often back in the days of the wild west. how else could order be restored if a gang of misfits walked into town? yet i must wonder what would happen today?

given a scenario in which security cannot be established by either the federal or state governments. the various communities would have to fend for themselves. i suspect rural communities would be ok. they are generally less diverse and have tighter community bonds. the cities and suburbs however, will probably not fare too well. mercenaries may be conscripted if a city has foresight and is wealthy. it is hard to believe most american cities will not go the way of new orleans.

granted the racial tensions and general poor shape of the city makes new orleans an extreme case. yet it is instructive. it seems the federal government was either unwilling or unable to respond effectively to that crisis. if there develops a general national emergency situation the federal structure will devolve into smaller parts. supposedly there are ten regions the FEMA has mapped out in case of such an event.

these are general musings. this country is so large and diverse it becomes impossible to generalise. it is interesting though to speculate on what it is that actually holds this nation together. the rule of law, respect for the law of the land, is a primary ingredient in the national glue. as we see it being disregarded how will the rest of us react?

Great 2nd Amendment Debate

the right to bear arms. this very american of debates is about to be rekindled in a big way. i hazard the prediction that even congress will have a go at this one.

in the wake of the new orleans flood we see many residents brandishing firearms, and refusing to leave their homes. in fact the general pervasiveness of guns is precisely what made this disaster so difficult to manage. police and other "authorities" were fired upon by armed gangs.

it is not difficult to imagine lawmakers raising a fuss. however it is equally difficult imagining anything being done about it. particularly with the republican majority in power.

as this country slides into lawlessness we will be caught in a paradox of our own making. on the one hand, we have an armed population suspicious of government intentions. on the other is a process of economic and social dissolution of our own making. people will be displaced in many different ways, and we will see the governmental authorities fail, from the top down.

it is apparent the federal government can no longer provide reasonable security in a disaster situation. each state may be temporarily able to provide for itself if the scale of the need is not too great. yet with much of the national guard in iraq, they are currently not available to help with their historical role of domestic crisis mitigation. the task of security quickly falls onto local authorities and communities. this raises the old question of posse comitatus. will young men willingly be conscripted into policing their own communities. in many cases the answer is no. we must assume that people will have a community they care about enough to defend.

in american cities chaos will reign. disaffected blacks will claim their territories. various cohesive ethnic communities will try to protect their homes and business. whites will probably flee to the hinterlands and suburbs. the cities could easily devolve into quasi feudal type situations.

as for the suburbs these places are doomed as well. with the breakdown of security in the cities, commuting suburbanites will be out of work with no place to go. as the price of energy continues to spiral upward the burbs will become simply untenable. they will probably be looted as well. these places are so sprawling that securing them would be impossible. not to mention that few people who live their care about them anyway. they will probably be stripped and abandoned.

so here we have it. we are falling on our own sword. great irony is apparent to us. we certainly not be under the thumb of some federal tyrant. instead it could be more of a local warlord. this is the reality as it is playing out.

goodbye New Orleans

I once spent a few days in this city on the mouth of the Mississippi. it was summer and extremely hot and muggy. i wandered around the old parts of the city with the feeling of stagnation. i recall thinking how thick the environment was with humidity and these heavy psychic residues. i guess that is all changed now. wiped clean....

when the levee broke, nature made a decision to wash this city clean.

i do not ascribe to the "accidental theory" of natural events. that is nature "just happens," and it is simply a matter of chance if you are in its path. this statement denies the reality of interconnectedness. all things in and out of nature are linked together by the Great Chain of Being. there is a reason and meaning behind every occurance, natural or otherwise. i do not intend to spell out any specifics for new orleans, at least at this time; but the writing is on the wall.

what should be pointed out is how utterly inept the response was. with the increasing volatility of the world system (human & natural) we are seeing more frequent "disasters." each disasters invites a response. the degree of this response is very telling of the health of the world system. the particular response in new orleans seems to indicate a greater degree of decay than even we had anticapted.